Conviction Not Having Big Impact Yet

You can be forgiven if you thought the criminal conviction of Donald Trump on 34 felony counts by a New York jury might be a game-changing moment in the 2024 presidential contest.

Don't Be Fooled by Trump's Triangulation on Abortion

The Biden Campaign Has a Trump-Fatigue Problem

Biden needs to emphasize the risks of a second Trump term without annoying and alienating voters who are sick of hearing about him.

Biden May Need a Rust Belt Sweep

While Democrats have been panicking about President Biden losing the 2024 election for some time now, that is not totally rational. National popular-vote polling remains very close, so it's far too early to write Joe off. In the RealClearPolitics averages, Trump leads Biden by 1.1 percent in a head-to-head contest, pretty much where the race has been for the last six months.

Why a Late RFK Jr. Polling Boom Is Unlikely

Whatever you think of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and his independent candidacy for president this year, he's already accomplished something that's fairly rare in recent American politics: registering support from over 10 percent of the electorate in national (and many battleground state) polls.

Will Ticket-Splitting Hurt Biden?

There are competitive U.S. Senate races in five of the 2024 presidential battleground states: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. And one of the narratives emerging from polling of these states is that Joe Biden is running behind his ticket mates pretty regularly.

Democrats Take Lead in Generic Congressional Ballot