This Election Is Trump’s to Lose

The 2024 election is Donald Trump’s to lose.

Right now, he is running even with President Joe Biden in all the national polls. He’s running ahead in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada; he’s running even in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin; he’s closing within striking distance in Minnesota and New Hampshire. The map has radically expanded for him.

Meanwhile, Biden’s approval ratings are stagnant: He’s stuck at below 40%. Americans’ view of the economy remains dim, as does their view of Biden’s foreign policy; they don’t see Biden as a commanding or charismatic figure.

What’s more, Americans’ perceptions of the two candidates are unlikely to change dramatically before the election. Biden has been underwater with voters since September 2021 and his ignominious Afghanistan withdrawal. He’s been losing to or dead even with Trump in the national polling since September 2023.

But that doesn’t mean that Trump will necessarily win.

The debate this week is one of the few possible turning points in the race. The Republican and Democratic conventions are unlikely to shift momentum. There’s the possibility that Trump will be sentenced to jailtime in July, but even that is unlikely to radically shift the numbers. And, of course, it is possible that Biden suffers a health crisis.

But the debate itself can change opinions. Or, rather, it can change focus.

So far, the race has been about Biden. No new information has been added to the litany of criticisms against Trump since 2021. Meanwhile, Biden has been the president—and he’s been doing a terrible job of it, setting things on fire both at home and abroad. He’s also in a state of obvious mental and physical decline.

But the debate could shift the focus back to Trump. Obviously, that’s Biden’s plan—and, presumably, the plan of the interlocutors at CNN.

As George Stephanopoulos recently told CNN’s Abby Phillip, the “most important question” is whether Trump will accept the results of the 2020 election as legitimate. “If you can’t pass that fundamental threshold of saying, ‘Yes the last election was not stolen,’ two, ‘I will abide by the results of the next election,’ then I think that’s all voters and viewers need to know,” said Stephanopoulos.

Presumably, Biden and anchors Jake Tapper and Dana Bash will follow that advice. Which means that Trump had better have an answer that shifts the focus away from his views of 2020 and back toward 2024. He ought to say:

We disagree on what happened in the 2020 election. I believe, for example, that your Democratic colleagues changed a lot of the voting rules in shocking ways, and that you and your friends in the media covered up a story about your son’s corruption, even though they knew it was true. But none of that matters much to the American people. What matters is now. Today. 2024. You’re the president, regardless of what I think happened in 2020. And you’ve been awful, which is why you’re losing.

Keeping the focus on Biden will be key. If asked about Jan. 6—which he surely will be—Trump should respond:

Joe, you’ve said I’m a threat to democracy because I don’t believe I lost the 2020 election. Well, Hillary Clinton doesn’t believe she lost the 2016 election, and that’s apparently just fine. In reality, you’re the threat to democracy: You’ve sicced your political allies on me in the courts, used OSHA to try to mandate vaccines for 80 million Americans, violated the Constitution to try to let people skate on their student loan debt, and violated your constitutional oath by keeping the border open and letting through 7 million illegal immigrants. Americans care less about Jan. 6, 2021, than Nov. 5, 2024.

Again, this election is Trump’s to lose. That means steadily, calmly keeping the focus on the man who occupies the White House—regardless of whom Trump thinks ought to have occupied the White House in January 2021.

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We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of The Daily Signal.

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The Democratic Subversion of Democracy

We have heard repeatedly during this election cycle that Donald Trump is a deep and abiding threat to democracy. That threat supposedly springs from Trump’s belief that he won the 2020 election, as well as his promotion of the specious legal theory that the vice president has the unilateral power to invalidate certified state electoral votes. One can stipulate that Trump has presented no evidence sufficient to support a claim that he lost the 2020 election based on voter fraud; one can further stipulate that Trump’s pressure on Mike Pence to delay election certification was rooted in baseless misinterpretation of the Constitution. In reality, however, the truest threat to American democracy isn’t stubborn unwillingness to concede an election or groundless legal wrangling. It is the continuing attempt to create a series of institutions impervious to public rebuke or electoral accountability, comprised of pseudo-experts who act as “authorities” on a wide range of issues affecting Americans. It is the creation and maintenance of a permanent bureaucracy, organized by the political left and catering to its whims. This was the goal of Woodrow Wilson, who wrote in 1887 that the political sphere — the responsibility of elected officials — had to be circumscribed in favor of expert “administration”: “Administrative questions are not political questions. Although politics sets the tasks for administration, it should not be suffered to manipulate its offices.” The power of the administrative state, Wilson wrote, should be unhampered and discretionary. And that is the goal of the so-called Deep State today. In preparation for Joe Biden’s possible defeat, the Biden administration is promoting new regulations from the Office of Personnel Management to prevent the reclassification of career civil servants as political appointees of at-will workers — effectively giving them taxpayer-funded tenure. The administration has spent the last few months ramming through regulations in an attempt to avoid the consequences of the Congressional Review Act — a piece of legislation that allows Congress to repeal regulations by passing a joint resolution immune to filibuster. The CRA can only be used, however, on regulations filed in the 60 days before a Congressional session adjourns. Hence the rush. All of this is designed to insulate government from the elected branches. And that is good, according to our legacy media and the Democratic Party, because the elected branches may come to be run by Donald Trump. This is why The New York Times ran a piece in March titled, “It Turns Out the ‘Deep State’ Is Actually Kind of Awesome.” According to the Times, “When we hear ‘deep state,’ instead of recoiling, we should rally. We should think about the workers otherwise known as our public servants, the everyday superheroes who wake up ready to dedicate their careers and their lives to serving us.” Those who posit that bureaucrats ensconced in regulatory positions may pursue anti-democratic ends are labeled “conspiracy theorists.” But there is no conspiracy theory necessary when the goal of bureaucratic administration is out in the open and has been for 150 years. Our Constitutional republic was rooted in checks and balances between elected branches, and an unelected judiciary delegated the power merely to interpret law rather than create it. There is no independent fourth branch of government that presides over policy, free from the electorate’s judgment. Yet that is precisely what the Biden administration continues to promote. And that is a threat to American democracy — a threat that has already materialized over the course of decades, turning our government into an elephantine, sclerotic and byzantine architecture shielded from public accountability. According to Democrats, that’s a good thing. At least it protects us from the true “threat to democracy,” an elected Republican president. Ben Shapiro, 39, is a graduate of UCLA and Harvard Law School, host of “The Ben Shapiro Show,” and co-founder of Daily Wire+. He is a three-time New York Times bestselling author; his latest book is “The Authoritarian Moment: How The Left Weaponized America’s Institutions Against Dissent.” To find out more about Ben Shapiro and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate website at www.creators.com.

The Democratic Subversion of Democracy

We have heard repeatedly during this election cycle that Donald Trump is a deep and abiding threat to democracy. That threat supposedly springs from Trump’s belief that he won the 2020 election, as well as his promotion of the specious legal theory that the vice president has the unilateral power to invalidate certified state electoral votes.

One can stipulate that Trump has presented no evidence sufficient to support a claim that he lost the 2020 election based on voter fraud; one can further stipulate that Trump’s pressure on Mike Pence to delay election certification was rooted in baseless misinterpretation of the Constitution. 

In reality, however, the truest threat to American democracy isn’t stubborn unwillingness to concede an election or groundless legal wrangling. It is the continuing attempt to create a series of institutions impervious to public rebuke or electoral accountability, comprised of pseudo-experts who act as “authorities” on a wide range of issues affecting Americans.

It is the creation and maintenance of a permanent bureaucracy, organized by the political Left and catering to its whims.

This was the goal of Woodrow Wilson, who wrote in 1887 that the political sphere—the responsibility of elected officials—had to be circumscribed in favor of expert “administration”: “Administrative questions are not political questions. Although politics sets the tasks for administration, it should not be suffered to manipulate its offices.” The power of the administrative state, Wilson wrote, should be unhampered and discretionary.

And that is the goal of the so-called deep state today. In preparation for President Joe Biden’s possible defeat, the Biden administration is promoting new regulations from the Office of Personnel Management to prevent the reclassification of career civil servants as political appointees of at-will workers—effectively giving them taxpayer-funded tenure.

The administration has spent the last few months ramming through regulations in an attempt to avoid the consequences of the Congressional Review Act—a piece of legislation that allows Congress to repeal regulations by passing a joint resolution immune to filibuster. The CRA can only be used, however, on regulations filed in the 60 days before a congressional session adjourns. Hence the rush.

All of this is designed to insulate government from the elected branches. And that is good, according to our legacy media and the Democratic Party, because the elected branches may come to be run by Trump.

This is why The New York Times ran a piece in March titled, “It Turns Out the ‘Deep State’ Is Actually Kind of Awesome.” According to the Times, “When we hear ‘deep state,’ instead of recoiling, we should rally. We should think about the workers otherwise known as our public servants, the everyday superheroes who wake up ready to dedicate their careers and their lives to serving us.”

Those who posit that bureaucrats ensconced in regulatory positions may pursue anti-democratic ends are labeled “conspiracy theorists.” But there is no conspiracy theory necessary when the goal of bureaucratic administration is out in the open and has been for 150 years.

Our constitutional republic was rooted in checks and balances between elected branches, and an unelected judiciary delegated the power merely to interpret law rather than create it. There is no independent fourth branch of government that presides over policy, free from the electorate’s judgment.

Yet that is precisely what the Biden administration continues to promote. And that is a threat to American democracy—a threat that has already materialized over the course of decades, turning our government into an elephantine, sclerotic, and byzantine architecture shielded from public accountability.

According to Democrats, that’s a good thing. At least it protects us from the true “threat to democracy,” an elected Republican president. 

COPYRIGHT 2024 CREATORS.COM

We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of The Daily Signal.

The post The Democratic Subversion of Democracy appeared first on The Daily Signal.

Of ‘Convicted Felons’ and Lying Frauds

Last week, a New York City jury, prompted by the legal coordination between Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg and Judge Juan Merchan—both partisan actors—convicted Donald Trump on 34 felony counts having to do with falsification of business records. Or election fraud. Or more tax issues. Or … something. Nobody really knows, and apparently it was unnecessary for the jury to agree on the crime in order to find Trump guilty of one.

No matter.

Trump was convicted and may now face jail time. We’ll find out on July 11—just a few days before the Republican National Convention. Obviously, this represents opportune timing for the Biden campaign. And yet Trump remains firmly knotted with President Joe Biden in the race for the White House. There have been four polls taken since Trump’s conviction. In all of them, Biden and Trump are either tied or within two points either way.

But how? The question echoes throughout the media: How can a convicted felon be running even with the incumbent president? The answer is twofold: First, Biden is a truly awful president; second, Biden has no ground to stand on in labeling Trump a threat to law and order.

First, Biden’s terrible record. Americans have been slammed by inflation for three years. Our social fabric has continued to decay as Biden openly seeks “equity”—meaning discriminatory legal regimens designed at rectifying group disparities—in every area of the federal government. On the foreign front, Biden has hamstrung Ukraine in its defense against Russia, and openly manipulated on behalf of Iran and Hamas in Israel’s war against the terror group that performed Oct. 7. It is difficult to see an area of the world that is markedly better off since Biden took the White House.

Second, Biden’s hypocrisy. In the aftermath of the Trump conviction, Trump naturally condemned the justice system that targeted him. Biden then responded by doubling down on his narrative that Trump’s pushback represents a threat to our democracy and our institutions: Last week, Biden staggered out to the podium to claim that “the American principle that no one is above the law was reaffirmed.” He added that it was “dangerous” and “irresponsible for anyone to say this was rigged just because they don’t like the verdict.”

The problem is this: Biden as defender of our democracy and our institutions just doesn’t play. This is the same president who tried to use his Occupational Safety and Health Administration to illegally cram down vaccines on 80 million Americans; who attempted, in defiance of law, to relieve student loan debt—and then bragged about defying the Supreme Court; whose Justice Department even let him off the hook for mishandling of classified material by calling him a dotard. Biden’s party has spent years tut-tutting massive riots, appeasing pro-terrorist student trespassers, and calling for an end to parental autonomy. There isn’t an institution in the country Biden hasn’t weakened.

To hear Biden rail against Trump for undermining institutions, then, simply won’t play. But Biden doesn’t have much left in the playbook.

All of which means that Trump still—still—has the upper hand. Ironically, Trump being sent to jail might actually help him, given that most Americans will correctly see the jailing of Biden’s chief political opponent as an act of vicious partisanship unworthy of the most powerful republic in world history.

In 2020, Biden ran on the platform of stability and normalcy; he has exploded both. All he’s left with is slogans about Orange Hitler. And that’s unlikely to be enough come November if gas prices are high, groceries cost too much, and the world remains aflame.

COPYRIGHT 2024 CREATORS.COM

We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of The Daily Signal.

The post Of ‘Convicted Felons’ and Lying Frauds appeared first on The Daily Signal.

Of ‘Convicted Felons’ and Lying Frauds

Last week, a New York City jury, prompted by the legal coordination between Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg and Judge Juan Merchan -- both partisan actors -- convicted Donald Trump on 34 felony counts having to do with falsification of business records. Or election fraud. Or more tax issues. Or ... something. Nobody really knows, and apparently it was unnecessary for the jury to agree on the crime in order to find Trump guilty of one. No matter. Trump was convicted and may now face jail time. We’ll find out on July 11 -- just a few days before the Republican National Convention. Obviously, this represents opportune timing for the Biden campaign. And yet Donald Trump remains firmly knotted with Biden in the race for the White House. There have been four polls taken since Trump’s conviction. In all of them, Biden and Trump are either tied or within two points either way. But how? The question echoes throughout the media: How can a convicted felon be running even with the incumbent president? The answer is twofold: First, Joe Biden is a truly awful president; second, Biden has no ground to stand on in labeling Trump a threat to law and order. First, Biden’s terrible record. Americans have been slammed by inflation for three years. Our social fabric has continued to decay as Biden openly seeks “equity” -- meaning discriminatory legal regimens designed at rectifying group disparities -- in every area of the federal government. On the foreign front, Biden has hamstrung Ukraine in its defense against Russia, and openly manipulated on behalf of Iran and Hamas in Israel’s war against the terror group that performed Oct. 7. It is difficult to see an area of the world that is markedly better off since Biden took the White House. Second, Biden’s hypocrisy. In the aftermath of the Trump conviction, Trump naturally condemned the justice system that targeted him. Biden then responded by doubling down on his narrative that Trump’s pushback represents a threat to Our Democracy and Our Institutions: On Friday, Biden staggered out to the podium to claim that “the American principle that no one is above the law was reaffirmed.” He added that it was “dangerous” and “irresponsible for anyone to say this was rigged just because they don’t like the verdict.” The problem is this: Biden as Defender of Our Democracy and Our Institutions just doesn’t play. This is the same president who tried to use his Occupational Safety and Health Administration to illegally cram down vaccines on 80 million Americans; who attempted, in defiance of law, to relieve student loan debt -- and then bragged about defying the Supreme Court; whose DOJ even let him off the hook for mishandling of classified material by calling him a dotard. Biden’s party has spent years tut-tutting massive riots, appeasing pro-terrorist student trespassers and calling for an end to parental autonomy. There isn’t an institution in the country Biden hasn’t weakened. To hear Biden rail against Trump for undermining institutions, then, simply won’t play. But Biden doesn’t have much left in the playbook. All of which means that Trump still -- still -- has the upper hand. Ironically, Trump being sent to jail might actually help him, given that most Americans will correctly see the jailing of Biden’s chief political opponent as an act of vicious partisanship unworthy of the most powerful republic in world history. In 2020, Biden ran on the platform of stability and normalcy; he has exploded both. All he’s left with is slogans about Orange Hitler. And that’s unlikely to be enough come November if gas prices are high, groceries cost too much and the world remains aflame.