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Trump vs. Biden: A Close Race Gets Even Closer

Three weeks after Donald Trump's criminal conviction in Manhattan, his close presidential contest with Joe Biden has gotten closer - but the fundamental contours of the race really haven't changed. I

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Biden Could Lose the Popular Vote and Still Win

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If Biden Isn't the Dems' 2024 Candidate, Harris Will Be

One of the stranger phenomena of this election year has been the chronic pundit talk of Joe Biden "stepping aside" as presidential nominee and Democrats replacing him with Gretchen Whitmer or Gavin Newsom or some other sort of fantasy candidate.

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Polls Say Trump Is Just as Popular Post-Conviction

Most of the scrutiny of the public-opinion reaction to Donald Trump's criminal conviction has focused on two optics: What do voters say and think when asked about it (either before or after the jury's guilty verdict was announced)? And how does it affect his standing against Joe Biden in general-election polls?

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There's No 2024 Game Changer Coming

For months now, many political observers have stared at polls that show Donald Trump with a modest lead over Joe Biden and have placed a mental thumb on the scales for the incumbent due to "Trump's legal problems." This was particularly common (and justifiable) back when it looked as though Trump could be on trial for multiple criminal charges in different cases before Election Day. And even when it turned out the (arguably) weakest case against him was the only one that would reach fruition before November, the available evidence and plain logic suggested that being officially branded as a...

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Conviction Not Having Big Impact Yet

You can be forgiven if you thought the criminal conviction of Donald Trump on 34 felony counts by a New York jury might be a game-changing moment in the 2024 presidential contest.