People who don’t like Donald Trump often point to his refusal to accept the outcome of the 2020 Election as valid, but there is a reason for Trump’s concern. If you look at both the 2016 and 2020 election results, Trump’s share of the vote improved in thirty-three out of fifty states from 2016 to 2020, as did his share of the popular vote nationally. It seems incredible to believe you can improve in so many places, yet lose. The difference between 2016 and 2020 can be seen in context, however, by seeing Biden’s share of the vote in 2020
There is a lot of noise about the 2024 Election, and all sorts of opinions about who will win and why. This includes a lot of poll reports in the media. But some clarity can be found by looking at the geography of the election, and sorting out where to find the meaningful positions. I want to start with one fact that gets missed by a lot of people discussing the election. This is not a national election in the sense that you simply pile up the most votes in total. The United States is a Constitutional Republic, meaning that
“The Titanic grazed the fatal iceberg at 11:40 p.m. on April 14, creating what is now believed to be a series of punctures below the waterline. Many passengers were in bed at the time, and few survivors said they noticed anything more than a slight vibration if even that. When stewards eventually came knocking to rouse the passengers and suggest they get dressed and come on deck, it was the first hint most of them had that anything was wrong … There was no commotion, no panic and no one seemed to be particularly frightened” https://www.history.com/news/titanic-final-hours-passengers-lifeboats People are
Tomorrow evening, Republican presumptive nominee and former President Donald Trump will face off against Democrat presumptive nominee and current President Joe Biden in a televised debate hosted by CNN, notably moderated by two individuals known for distinctly immoderate political positions. The debate is widely considered as potentially decisive in shaping voter decisions just ahead of the party conventions. It occurs to me that among the possible plans, would be one where Biden has an on-air medical event. Here is why I think that could happen: Biden has trailed Trump all year long in the polls, and it gets worse
The race for the Presidency is statistically too close to call, according to media, but former President Trump is clearly doing better than he did in either 2016 and 2020. The media is not saying that second part out loud, but a check on the last two cycles shows that to be so. RealClearPolitics shows Trump with 45.9% average support over nine current polls, compared to 45.0% average support for Biden. Trump ranges from 41% to 51% support, while Biden ranges from 39% to 49% support. That narrow lead, with an average Margin of Error of 2.7%, comports with
A funny thing happened in 2015. A real estate estate mogul from NYC with a huge ego matched by a huge mouth decided to run for President of the United States. By itself that’s just a blurb in the news, the kind usually followed a few weeks later with an update that the celebrity has ‘suspended’ his campaign and quit the race. Certainly that’s what the field of candidates expected in the race to follow Obama with a Republican POTUS. Instead, Donald Trump built on modest support and his name, and soon became a contender for the GOP
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